Moneyball and Whiteyball and Market Inefficiencies

Few pleasures, in my mind, compare to the joy of reading a well written book. Although I was not overly impressed by the movie rendition of Moneyball, the book and its explanation of the acquisition of undervalued assets by the Oakland Athletics delighted me. It probably also helped that the 2001 and 2002 seasons are not prominent in my baseball memory (2001 was my first year of college, and in 2002 I was out of the country), and when I read the book in 2006 I was coming back from my baseball hiatus following another strong Oakland team while living in Minnesota. Watching the 2006 ALCS in the Metrodome and having Mark Kotsay’s inside the park homerun silence the crowd is one of my favorite baseball memories.

Reading Michael Lewis’s book, you get the sense that Beane and company had discovered something new, that in some way they had figured out how to game the system by identifying market inefficiencies and focusing on on-base percentage. To my surprise, however, I recently found this passage in Why Time Begins on Opening Day written by Thomas Boswell in 1984. Writing about the rise of the St. Louis Cardinals in the early 1980s, he speaks about how Whitey Herzog built his winning teams as an anathema to Earl Weaver’s “pitching, fundamentals, and three-run homers,” or what in that age most closely resembled sabermetrics. Herzog’s teams, instead, were built around speed (on offense and on defense) and relief pitching. Why Whiteyball? Well, it was this quote from the book that caught my attention:

“To Herzog it’s axiomatic that the contemporary Ace of Staff lives in the bullpen. Herzog starts with speedsters and relievers; then, as a kind of apologetic after-thought, he looks to see if any stray sluggers or starting pitchers–you know, the category of players who monopolize the Hall of Fame—happen to be left lying about. To Herzog, the most overabundant commodity in baseball is a respectable starting pitcher who can give you a few presentable innings. John Stuper, Dave LaPoint, Steve Mura—sure, dime a dozen. Win it all with ‘em. Now perhaps we can see why Herzog could build his team so quickly. He could get the guys he wanted because nobody else thought much of them. He sought precisely the baseball commodities that were most undervalued” (p. 73).

Just like Moneyball, Whiteyball identified undervalued assets and acquired them cheaply to create a championship team. What stands out in my mind, however, is that Boswell does not say that Herzog went looking for undervalued assets. Rather, Herzog’s managerial preferences for a competitive team matched exactly what the baseball market currently undervalued at that time. It’s this key point that I think Lewis’s book misses or is not clear about. Was Moneyball a conscientious decision to target undervalued assets or was it just pure chance that Beane and DePodesta’s desire for players who could not play defense and got on-base at high rates was the undervalued asset at the time?

As the market for baseball assets changes, I also have to wonder, in this age of information, will there ever be a market inefficiency that will last long enough to allow a club to build a coherent team on the field. In following the A’s attempts to rebuild in the last 5 years or so, they have moved from one inefficiency (defense: with the acquisitions of Coco Crisp, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and Ryan Sweeney) to another (raw latino talent: Michael Ynoa and Yoenis Cespedes) to another (relief pitchers: Grant Balfour, Michael Wuertz, and Brian Fuentes). It seems to me that in only targeting inefficiencies, it becomes much more difficult to build a coherent team. Whereas Herzog’s transactions targeted inefficiencies, they were also part of a larger strategic purpose:

“He had little trouble trading for the heart of his new team—Lonnie Smith, Ozzie Smith, Willie McGee, and Bruce Sutter. These and other personnel moves, like signing free agent Darrell Porter, weren’t uniformly brilliant, but they all had the thread of Herzog’s guiding purpose. Each trade was greater than the sum of its parts, because each new Card complemented the others” (p. 73-74).

This is cross-posted at Baseball-Bob.

Cliff Lee's "The Decision"

I originally posted this Philadelphia Inquirer story about the Phillies signing Cliff Lee on facebook. What caught my attention was the opening paragraph.

Well, this just doesn't happen. Highly coveted free-agent athletes take their talents to South Beach, or sign bank-busting contracts with the Washington Nationals. That's just how it is.

We think of the Cliff Lee signing as a repudiation of money and fame. In signing with the Phillies, Lee spurned the millions of dollars that the Yankees could have given him in order to return to a team with which he felt comfortable. In doing so, Lee isn't "taking his talents to South Beach" or is he?

In some ways, he's doing the exact same thing Lebron James did. By joining the Phillies he's becoming part of a team that no becomes the odd-on favorite to win the National League pennant and return to the World Series. With a rotation of Doc Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and who ever Charlie Manual throws out there on the fifth day, the Phillies have one of the best rotations, since, well...there's been a lot of speculation about that.

What Cliff Lee is doing is EXACTLY what Lebron James did. He's going to the place where he thinks he has the best chance of winning and where he will feel comfortable. James wanted to play with his friends Chris Bosh and Dewayne Wade and Miami was the only place he could do that and also become an immediate NBA Finals contender. Remember, that because of NBA salary cap rules, James could have signed a bigger contract with the Cavaliers. Cliff Lee has friends on the Phillies and by joining that team, and turning down a larger and longer contract with the Yankees, the Phils easily become the favorite to return to the World Series and even win it.

The difference? Well, there was that botched ESPN hour long special, and the infamous quote "I'm taking my talents to South Beach." Sometimes it's better to keep your mouth shut and just sign on the dotted line.

The Title's Wrong

The title of this article really should be "A's impose contracts on 29 players." "Agree with" is really a terrible word for a part of the collective bargaining agreement by which the team can renew a player's previous year's contract in his first 3 years of being in the major-leagues without any sort of negotiation.

Then again, I'd readily "agree to" a $400,000+ contract just to play baseball for 6 months.

Nominations

Kahl says my blog is all about baseball.
So, here's a link to McSweeney, one of his favorites, on the Sotomayor confirmation hearings.

And if you think the first question is irrelevant, check here

Enjoy.

Class

Getting early to the ballpark, you get to see things you wouldn't otherwise notice. Baseball, and most sports, aren't just about stepping out onto the field and playing, but involve lots of preparation, warming up, and repetition. TV doesn't give you that, nor does radio, but by being at the ballpark an hour or so before the game you see ballplayers for who they really are, and the effort they put into what they do.

Arriving an hour or so before the Padres-Mariners game on Wednesday, however, I was struck by an image of respect that I had not seen before. As soon as the national anthem is over players and fans return their focus to the game, yet this time, while the color guard marched off, the players from the Mariners stood at attention, just as I had been taught to do as a little one, until the color guard had exited the field.



In some small way I gained an added measure of respect for them who, in their own individual way, are trying to keep sacred things they view as sacred.

The Twins need Bloomquists

A couple of weeks ago, Joe Posnanski put out an article about key differences in the philosophies of baseball. His argument was that while some teams are built around

"what you can see, what is measurable, what is cold and hard and real,"

others are built around

"passion, what is intangible, this sense that if you can get a bunch of guys who KNOW HOW to play the game, who LOVE the game, who HAVE BASEBALLS BEATING IN THEIR CHESTS, then you can do wonderful things."

His examples included two baseball players who are polar opposites and who both signed free-agent contracts this past off-season, Adam Dunn, a power-hitting outfielder who strikes out a lot, and Willie Bloomquist, a scrappy, always has his uniform dirty, multi-positional, solid defensive player. In the article, Posnanski argues that some teams are built one way, and others another, without really giving a rational and strategic explanation for such choices. What Posnanski doesn't realize is that some team's pitching staffs need Bloomquists, while others have the luxury of pursuing Dunns. Some of the key differences between these baseball philosophies comes from differences in their pitching styles.

Consider the Minnesota Twins. As Posnanski explains

"The Minnesota Twins, for instance, lean Bloomquist.. The Twins run and catch the ball and they have not worried too much about power or on-base percentage. This, no doubt, frustrates the heck out of a lot of Dunn-leaning Twins fans."

Posnanski attributes the choice of baseball style to the baseball fans "core" or an internal intrinsic preference whose foundations are unattributable. However, as you look at the pitching staff of the Minnesota Twins, you begin to understand why. This is a team that needs defense behind it. The choice of the Minnesota Twins to play a Bloomquist style baseball is not based upon some internal preference, but on the objective of maximizing their winning potential. The Twins pitching staff of Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, and Glenn Perkins are pitchers who pitch around the strike zone and they are not known to strike a lot people out. Last year Baker's K/9 innings were 7.2 while his BB/9 were 2.2. Slowey and the rest of the staff have even lower numbers, at 6.9 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9, 2.5 and 1.8, 1.9 and 2.3 respectively. The one Twins starting pitcher who differs from this mode is youngster Francisco Liriano who has posted a 10.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 rates over his three-year career. In general Twins starting pitching is not going to miss bats. Opposing batters are going to be given every opportunity to hit the ball, but hopefully with-in the range of a Twins defensive player.

Another perfect example of this is Carlos Silva, a former Twin who became a free agent and signed with the Seattle Mariners before the 2008 season. Silva is another strike-throwing pitcher. During his best year in 2005 for the Twins he had a 3.44 ERA and a grand total of 9 walks in 188.3 innings pitched for a BB/9 of 0.4. In the World Baseball Classic, Silva was pegged by Venezuelan manager Luis Sojo to start the Semi-Final game. The results were less than satisfactory. As David Pinto of Baseball Musings put it,

"Every ball the Koreans put into play in the first inning seemed find a hole or bounce off a glove, and the two seed bats around and picks up five runs in the inning. The Korean hitters look very patient and aim to put the ball in play, so they matched up well against Silva. Weak defense helped as well..."(emphasis added)

The Venezuelan team was a team built around Adam Dunn type players. Miguel Cabrera at first, Maglio Ordonez in left field and Bobby Abreu in right. This is a team that can slug the ball, but perhaps has a little more trouble chasing after it, and the results were less than desirable. Silva did about what you could expect from Carlos Silva, and put himself in a place to succeed. Unfortunately, his defense wasn't able to back him up. Is it any wonder his numbers declined in Seattle, where the right side of the diamond had slow moving Richie Sexon, Jose Vidrio, and Wladimir Balentien or Raul Ibanez, all who are known as sub-par defenders?

The Twins play a Bloomquist philosophy baseball, not necessarily because it's their philosophy, but because it's what they need to do because of the pitching staff they've come to rely upon. And even before the current staff, there were others like Brad Radke and Eric Miton who were very much the same type of pitchers. The Twins have a pitching style built on strike throwing pitchers that need that good defense behind it. Their Bloomquist philosophy of baseball, then, is not a mere preference of style, but is a strategic choice that maximizes their opportunity to win. When the Twins can get a power hitter like a Jason Morneau, they take him, but not on the sacrifice of what is crucial to their pitching staff. That is why the Minnesota Twins won't sign an Adam Dunn.

Where have you gone Jimmy Foxx?

The A's lack good hitters. What else is new?

A Baseball Voice

Can I just say that I love to listen to Vin Scully?

I'm not a Dodgers' Fan, but I think he just has a wonderful voice for baseball broadcasting.

I think there are just a couple of voices that seem so perfect for listening:
Carl Kasell
Garrison Keilor
Vin Scully

and of the three I have heard the least of Vin Scully. Growing up on NPR, I have heard countless broadcasts of Prairie Home Companion and All Things Considered on long car rides back from Bangor, but only in the last couple of months as I've had more time to listen to the occasional Dodger game on the radio or through MLB.tv have I had the chance to really listen and appreciate Vin Scully. The contrast with the Padres broadcaster Ted Leitner is astounding. I will continue to look for voice samples, but if you could hear the difference, you'd understand.

UPDATE:
Voice Samples of
Garrison Keilor
Carl Kassel
Vin Scully (1)
Vin Scully (2)

UPDATE II
I also can't stand the voice of Angels TV announcer Rex Hudler. Terrible. How two teams in the same city have such a contrast!

Baseball Theology

After watching the full 15 innings of the All-Star game, including this amazing throw by Nate McLouth of the Pittsburgh Pirates to Russell Martin of the LA Dodgers to get Dioner Navarro of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, I want to explain some of the reasons I think baseball is a wonderful game.

This is a game to be savored, not gulped. There's time to discuss everything between pitches or between innings. ~Bill Veeck

Baseball is for the leisurely afternoons of summer and for the unchanging dreams. ~Roger Kahn

When watching other sports you're always afraid that by getting up to do something in the other room you'll miss the action. If you're not always closely attentive you'll miss the amazing shot by the point guard, or the hard check by the left defenseman, or whatever. With each pitch and with each play there is time to think, talk about it, get nervous about it, and then savor it. And then if you miss it, there's always enough time inbetween pitches to watch replays of it.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver

Baseball is unique. There are no other sports (beside baseball's cousin cricket) where the defense has the ball. No team can ever say, as Vince Lombardi once did, that they never lost, they just ran out of time. Every team has their chance. Strategically it's fair.

Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy

Baseball can be statistically measured in ways that other sports just can't. There are even stats that most people haven't heard of, such as Batting Average for Balls in Play, or Defensive Zone Ratings. With the rise of Sabermetrics, anything and everything can be measured, analyzed, and considered. If you haven't read Moneyball, it's worth a read.

The great thing about baseball is that there's a crisis every day. ~Gabe Paul

Baseball is played every day. Day in, day out. It's there. Not every third day, or once a week or once every two weeks, but every day. It reflects the daily grind. To truly excel in life doesn't require greatness every so often, but consistency and dedication and work every single day of your life.

Baseball is the only field of endeavor where a man can succeed three times out of ten and be considered a good performer. ~Ted Williams

At the same time, what is most important is that you keep trying. Most batters don't get a hit. Most fielders don't touch the ball in an inning, the important thing is that you are ready and always there.

Baseball? It's just a game - as simple as a ball and a bat. Yet, as complex as the American spirit it symbolizes. It's a sport, business - and sometimes even religion. ~Ernie Harwell, Broadcaster for the Detroit Tigers, "The Game for All America," 1955

Charlie Finley's type of Baseball

Orange baseballs, midgets, and now switch pitchers vs. switch hitters
Wonderful!

If you don't like Baseball just skip this

A couple people were getting on me for not posting more, so in honor of them I will share with you one baseball link that made me realize how utterly pointless it is to follow rumors of trades and other possibilities like I have been doing for the last couple of months since baseball ended in October.
And so I give you the breaking news:
The Kansas City Royals have traded for Johan Santana. (If I'm going to say it, I might as well blow it even more out of proportion.)